10 Guesses about China’s Macroeconomy in 2012.docVIP

10 Guesses about China?s Macroeconomy in 2012 The year of 2012 has come. What will the Chinese macroeconomy be like is a hot topic. Experts have made ten relevant guesses, which are shown as follows: New credit loans of 8 trillion yuan The amount of newly lent credit loans will reach 8 trillion yuan (USD 1.26 trillion) in 2012. The increase of M2 will contribute to 2% of the GDP. Assuming that the GDP growth rate can be maintained at 8.5% and the growth of CPI is around 3.4% in 2012, the M2 will have a 14% increase. From that we can estimate that the amount of newly lent credit loans is about 8 trillion yuan. The survey reveals that the enterprises still have a high demand for credit loans. Since the banking loans are limited by the quota management, the enterprises have to wait in turn to get the loans. Therefore many companies hope that the central bank can properly loosen the credit regulation and control. In December 2011 the central bank lowered the reserve requirement by 0.5 percent, hinting that the relevant departments may loosen the monetary policy. There are still spaces for the decrease of rreserve requirement and interest rate in 2012, so the credit market might be looser. In addition, the regulatory department has implemented strict control over the loans for local financing platforms and real estate com- panies, leading to the decrease of gross credit amount in these two fields. In 2012, the project continuation capital and indemnificatory housing capital might be the breakthrough points of credit loans as the regulation over this field might not be that strict. 20% increase in imports and exports volume In the first half of 2012, the imports and exports growth will continue to fall like this year. In the second half of 2012, the unfriendly factors for global economic growth will be gradually digested by the market and the global economy will return to the way of recovery. So the imports and exports growth rate will be up again a