2013-胡永泰-威胁中国经济的中等收入陷阱的主要类型.pdfVIP

3 The Major Types of Middle-income Trap That Threaten China Wing Thye Woo 1. A New Stage in China’s Economic Development but Will This be the Permanent Stage? The World Bank reclassified China as an upper middle-income country n uly 011. e eductive haracter f ogic eaves o oubt bout hat i J 2 Th d c o l l n d a w is the next stage in this classification scheme: a high-income country or, o e xact ut wkward, ower igh-income ountry. e nternational t b e b a a l h c Th i experience with economic growth, however, advises strongly against the temptation to predict the date of China’s advent into high-income-hood by making a straightforward projection from China’s growth path in the ast 3 ears. y traightforward rojection, e ean rediction hat p 3 y B s p w m a p t is based on the assumption that future growth rates of China’s GDP per capita would resemble its past growth rates in a predictable way, with the straight-line projection being an extreme example. The more common traightforward rojection s o uild n n ncremental owdown o he s p i t b i a i sl t t average growth rate of the recent period such that the Chinese growth rate would converge to the U.S. growth rate by the time that China achieves parity in the standard of living with the United States. The case against the straightforward projection is summarized in able hich hows he DP er