基于eemd鄄ar模型的丹江口水库年径流随机模拟与预报.pdfVIP

第37卷第5期 水 利 水 电科 技 进 展 2017年9月 Vol.37 No.5 Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources Sep. 2017 DOI:10.3880/ j.issn.1006 7647.2017.05.003 基于 EEMD鄄AR模型的丹江口水库年径流随机模拟与预报 练继建,孙萧仲,马摇 超,赵摇 明,唐志波 (天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津摇 300072) 摘要:基于水库历史年入库径流序列组分分析和识别,采用线性趋势回归检验法、有序聚类法、方差 线谱法等方法,推求出序列趋势项、跳跃项及周期项等确定性成分,提出基于集合经验模态分解法 (EEMD方法)的水库年径流自回归随机模拟模型(EEMD鄄AR),并应用于丹江口水库的年径流随 机模拟和预报中。 通过EEMD分解,解决了当丹江口水库历史年径流序列为非平稳序列时不能直 接应用自回归模型(AR) 进行随机模拟和预报的问题。 模拟结果表明,EEMD鄄AR模型能较好地模 拟丹江口水库年径流序列并保持原历史序列的统计特性,且模型预报精度符合要求。 关键词:径流序列成分识别;EEMD鄄AR模型;径流随机模拟;丹江口水库 中图分类号:TV124摇 摇 摇 文献标志码:A摇 摇 摇 文章编号:1006 7647(2017)05 0016 06 Stochastic simulation andprediction of annual runoff in theDanjiangkou Reservoirbased onEEMD鄄ARmodel/ / LIAN Jijian, SUN Xiaozhong, MA Chao,ZHAO Ming,TANG Zhibo (State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin300072,China) Abstract:Based ontheanalysisandidentificationoftheannualrunoff sequencecomponentsoftheDanjiangkouReservoir, deterministic components such asthetrendterm,thejumpingtermandtheperiodictermwerederivedbyusinglineartrend regression analysis method,sequential cluster method and variance spectrum method, etc. A stochastic auto鄄regression model of annual runoff basedonEnsembleEmpirical ModeDecomposition (EEMD)wasproposed (EEMD鄄AR)anditwas applied to the stochastic simulation and prediction of the annual runoff in the Danjiangkou Reservoir. Through the EEMD decomposition,the problem that stochastic simulation and prediction by auto鄄regression (AR) model cannot be directly applied due to the non鄄stationary historical runoff sequence of the Danjiangkou Reservoir has been solved. The simulation results show that EEMD鄄AR model can simulate and predict the annual