试析人民币升值对我国外贸的影响.doc

试析人民币升值对我国外贸的影响 Tentative analysis of the effects to china’s foreign trades due to the appreciation of the RMB 经贸管理学院 04国际经济与贸易 吴顺龙 摘要 自2005年人民币实行有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，人民币持续稳步升值，人民币升值的主要原因来自两个方面：一是国际收支双顺差和巨额的外汇储备形成的外在压力，二是我国经济持续高速增长对增强货币政策独立性提出的内在要求。 人民币升值总体来说利大与弊，人民币升值在一定程度上有利于贸易条件改善，促进产业结构升级，提高对外投资能力。但人民币持续大幅升值将降低我国吸引外资能力，扩大企业外汇风险，恶化贸易收支。我国外贸企业必须增强外汇风险意识、同时提高产品质量，从价格竞争转向品牌竞争，同时注意合理地将人民币升值的压力转变为促进产业结构升级的动力，推动我国外贸健康而又稳定地发展。 关键词 人民币升值 贸易收支影响 原因分析 对策 Abstract The appreciation of Renminbi is continuing with steady steps since implementation of the floating exchange rate system with management in 2005. The main reason of the appreciation of Renminbi comes from two aspects:one is external pressue formed by the double favorable balance of international payment banance, the other is the intrinsic request of strengthening the monetary policy independence to make our country’s economic continuely grow with high speed. Generally speaking, the benefits brought from the appreciation of Renminbi is more than the shortcoming. The appreciation of Renminbi is beneficial to the improvement of our country’s trade condition, the promotion of the industrial structure, the enhancement of the ability to invest in foreign countries; but the appreciation of Renminbi with continue and large steps will reduce the ability of attracting foreign capital, expand the enterprise’s exchange risk and worse the revenue and expenditure of trade. Our country’s foreign trade enterprise must strengthen the conscious of exchange risk, simultaneously, improve the quality of product, turn to the brand competition from the price competition, positively face with the pressure of the appreciation of Renminbi. Key words Appreciation of RMB The effect of the trade payment Analysis of the reason strategy 近年来随着我国贸易顺差的不断扩大，贸易摩擦也不断增加，而人民币又迫于种种压力和需要连续不断升值，从2005年7月21日~2007年11月6日，由1美元兑人民币8.2765元升至1美元兑人民币7.4577元，升值幅度达9.89%。如此大幅度升值对我国外贸企业无疑是一次沉重打击，如何应对人民币升值压力，从严峻形势下通过研究汇率问题寻找进一步发展的机遇。这是我国外贸亟需认真对待的