2014年1季度天津写字楼物业市场简报.pdfVIP

Research Forecast Report TIANJIN | OFFICE 1Q 2014 天津写字楼物业市场 MARKET OVERVIEW 市场概览 Following a solid year of gains in 2013 whereby the city’s GDP 2 0 1 3 年 天 津 市 生 产 总 值 增 长 稳 定 ， 年 增 长 率 达 1 2 . 5 % 。 除 了 grew by an annualised 12.5%, Tianjin continued to perform 2014年2至3月份人民币汇率和全国制造业数据上的一些波动， well despite some recent volatility in February and March 天津市总体表现依然良好。据天津市统计局，2014年1至2月固 2014 with regards to the slide in both the renminbi exchange 定资产投资总额同比增长16.2%，录得人民币796亿元。1至2月 rate as well as national manufacturing data. According to the 整体房地产投资增速加快，录得人民币104亿元，较2013年同期 Tianjin Statistics Bureau, total fixed asset investments (FAI) 的人民币86亿元增长21.0%。尽管大量的资本越来越多地注入 grew by 16.2% y-o-y to RMB79.6 billion for the combined 经济，通货膨胀率控制在2.9%，低于3.5%的“合理”水平。然 January to February 2014 reporting period. Overall real 而，乐观的经济数据不足以阻止天津市优质写字楼物业市场整体 estate investment recorded an even greater percentage gain 净有效租金的下滑以及空置率的小幅上升，这两个现象表明房地 of 21.0% y-o-y totalling approximately RMB10.4 billion for 产市场正出现过度投资的可能性，并加剧了已经处于历史(及结 January and February compared to RMB8.6 billion from 构性)高位的写字楼供应。 the same period in 2013. Despite increasingly large sums of capital being pumped into the economy, inflation was kept at bay recording a 2.9% increase for the same reporting period below the “reasonable” figure of 3.5%. Rosy macroeconomic figures, however, weren’t enough to stop the slide in the overall net effective rent of the city’s quality office property market as well as the ever so slight rise in the vacancy rate both of which could indicate the likelihood of overinvestment occurring in the property market and exacerbating the situation of a historically (and structurally) high overhang in the city’s office supply. SUPPLY