中国农村居民旅游消费的多元线性回归分析.docx

王瑶华（湖南农业大学 经济学院，湖南 长沙 410128）摘 要：进入新世纪，中国旅游业进入了战略转型时期，由于国际旅游市场竞争日趋激烈与金融危机的冲击，入境游明显受挫以及国内旅游需求日益增长，国内旅游逐渐在我国的旅游市场上占据主导地位。过去，在我国的旅游消费群体 中，主要消费群体为城镇居民，因而人们更多地将目光集中在对城镇居民的旅游消费研究上。但近几年来，农村居民的 旅游人数和旅游花费也在显著增长。文章通过对我国农村居民旅游消费进行多元线性回归分析，阐述了我国农村居民 的旅游消费状况，研究了各种因素对我国农村居民旅游消费的不同影响，为策划国内旅游市场未来的发展提供了可供 参考的政策建议，并预测未来的旅游消费情况，试图找到挖掘我国农村居民旅游消费市场的巨大潜力的有力措施。 关键词：旅游消费；农村居民；多元线性回归中图分类号：F592；F224.9文献标识码：A文章编号：1006-8937 （2011 ）15-0100-03Multiple linear regression analysis on the tourism consumptionof the rural residents in ChinaWANG Yao- hua（Economic College，Hunan Agricultural University，Changsha，Hunan 410128，China）Abstract:In the new century，Chinese tourism industry goes into strategic transformation period.Owning to the increasingly fierce com-petition of international tourism market and the impact of financial crisis，inbound tourism is obviously frustrated and domestic tourism demand is growing，and demestic tourism gradually occupies a leading position in Chinese tourism market.In the past，the main tourism consumption group in China is urban residents，so people pay more attention to the study on the tourism consumption of urban residents. However，in recent years，the tourist number and expenditure of rural residents also grow significantly.Through the multiple linear re- gression analysis on the tourism consumption of the rural residents in China，this paper explains the tourism consumption condition of Chinese rural residents，studies the different influence of various factors on the tourism consumption of Chinese rural residents，pro- vides policy recommendations for reference for planning the future development of domestic tourism market，and predicts the tourism consumption condition in future and tries to find out the effective measures for excavating the great potential of the tourism consumptionmarket of Chinese reral residents.Keywords：tourism consumption；rural residents；multiple linear regression近年来，随着我国改革开放的不断深化，人民的物质文化生活水平日益提高，人们对生活质量也提出了更 高的要求，旅游消费作为一种非基本需求的较高层次的 消费逐渐成为人们的主要休闲方式