公交优先条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的预测模型研究_英文.pdfVIP

第9卷 第6期 交通运输系统工程与信息 Vol9 　 No6 2009 年 1 2 月 Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology December 　2009 文章编号 : (2009) 系统工程理论与方法 Estimating Modal Shift of Car Travelers to Bus on Introduction of Bus Priority System 1 2 VEDA GIRI P. , ARASAN V . T. ( 1. Department of Civil Engineering , Indian Institute of Technology Bombay , Powai , Mumbai 400076 , India ; 2 . Transportation Engineering Division , Department of Civil Engineering , Indian Institute of Technology Madras , Chennai 600036 , India) Abstract : 　This study is concerned with estimation of the probable shift of car users to bus due to increase in its level of service after providing exclusive bus lanes on Indian city roads carrying heterogeneous traffic . The quantum of increase in level of service of bus due to introduction of exclusive bus lane was determined using a recently de veloped simulation model of heterogeneous traffic flow. The data of the other factors (variables) that might cause modal shift from car to bus were collected through homeinterview survey based on the stated preference approach . A binary Logit model of modechoice was then calibrated using the collected data and the model was also validated using holdout sample . Through this study , a set of causal factors , with reliable and predictable data base , to ex plain the variation in shift behaviour of personal vehicle users to buses consequent on the increase in the level of service of buses , has been ide