中国小麦自然灾害风险综合评价初步研究-aii-ir-主页-中国农业.pdfVIP

2013,46(4):705-714 Scientia Agricultura Sinica doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.04.005 100081 A Preliminary Study of Integrated Assessment of Wheat Natural Disaster Risk in China ZHAO Jun-ye, ZHANG Qiao, ZHAO Si-jian (Key Laboratory of Agri-Information Service Technology of Ministry of Agriculture, Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081) Abstract: ObjectiveIn order to explore the integrated assessment method of crop natural disaster risk, comprehensive evaluation and analysis of wheat natural disaster risk on the provincial units were carried out.Method Based on the regional natural disaster theories, crop natural disaster integrated risk assessment index system was established. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and differentiated indexes weighted methods, the integrated assessment index of wheat natural disaster risk (I) was acquired, by which integrated assessment and zoning of wheat natural disaster risk was carried out, and the assessment results was verified by the estimated value of wheat yield loss (L) due to disasters.ResultBased on frequency data of different natural disasters with wheat as hazard-bearing body, the components and hazard of disaster-causing factors of different provinces were analyzed. Forty indexes were chosen to appreciate stability of disaster environment (S), hazard of disaster-causing factor (H), vulnerability of wheat (V) and capability of disaster defending and resistance (C), which were compared within different provinces, and the risk integrated index I was assessed by the assessment mo