甘肃省马铃薯种植水足迹及效率评价—基于GM (1, 1) 模型的实证预测研究.docVIP

甘肃省马铃薯种植水足迹及效率评价—基于GM (1, 1) 模型的实证预测研究 蔡建辉 颜七笙 王彦芳 东华理工大学地球科学学院 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 借助CropWat模型运用水足迹理论对1993-2014年甘肃省马铃薯种植水足迹进行量化分析, 并利用GM (1, 1) 模型对马铃薯水足迹进行了预测分析。结果表明: (1) 甘肃省马铃薯生长过程水足迹整体呈波动上升趋势, 最小值为1993年的1.88×109m3, 最大值为2013年的5.11×109m3, 平均值为3.62×109m3/a; (2) 马铃薯水足迹构成中以蓝水足迹为主, 约占63.80%, 绿水足迹占23.28%, 灰水足迹占12.92%, 三者皆呈波动上升趋势; (3) 马铃薯水足迹效率总体呈上升—下降—上升的态势, 其最小值为1993年的5.27元/m3, 最大值为2014年的25.06元/m3, 同比增长约4.76倍, 表明甘肃省马铃薯水足迹效率明显提高, 意味着马铃薯种植为甘肃省农业总产值的贡献度有所提高; (4) 借助GM (1, 1) 模型预测到2015-2020年马铃薯生长过程水足迹、蓝水、绿水及灰水足迹皆呈缓慢上升趋势。 关键词： 马铃薯水足迹; 水足迹效率; GM (1, 1) 预测模型; 水资源; 作者简介：蔡建辉 (1991-) , 男, 甘肃天水人, 硕士研究生, (E-mail) jhcshine@。 作者简介：颜七笙 (1976-) , 男, 江西临川人, 教授, 博士, (E-mail) ecut001@。 收稿日期：2017-03-30 基金：江西省教育厅科技基金项目 (GJJ150600) The Evaluation on Water Footprint and Performance for Potato Production in Gansu Province—Based on an Empirical Forecast Study of GM (1, 1) Model Cai Jianhui Yan Qisheng Wang Yanfang School of Earth Science and Mapping Engineering, East China University of Technology; Abstract： The cropwat model was quantitatived analysis of water footprint of potato growing in Gansu Province in 1993-2014, and the GM ( 1, 1) model was used to predict the potato water footprint. The research shows: (1) Gansu provinces water footprint of potato growing in showed a rising trend, the minimum value is 1. 88 × 109m3 in 1993, the maximum value is 5. 11 × 109m3 in 2013, the average value is 3. 62 × 109m3/a. (2) The water footprint of potato is mainly blue water footprint, accounting for 63. 80%, the green water footprint accounted for 23. 28%, the grey water footprint is 12. 92%, all is a rising trend. (3) The water footprint efficiency of potato present rise-fall-rise as a whole, the minimum value is5. 27 yuan/m3 in 1993, the maximum value is 25. 06yuan/m3 in 2014, an increase of about 4. 76 times, the results showed that the water footprint efficiency of potato in Gansu province increased significantly, which means