三小时负变压异常指数及对强对流天气的预报意义-气象学报.PDFVIP

1 doi ：10.11676/qxxb2017.079 2 三小时负变压异常指数及对强对流天气的预报意义 3 肖安 许爱华 4 XIAO AN XUAihua 5 江西省气象台, 南昌, 330096 6 Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang, 330096 7 收稿日期：2017 年3 月29 日 8 Abstract ：The 3 h pressure change which below the daily variation can be found on the ground before 9 severe weather processes which is forced by low level warm advection. The Pressure Change 10 Range(PCR) is defined as 3 h pressure change that below the pressure variation standard deviation by 11 using conventional ground observation data. Climate distribution characteristicsof the 3 h pressure 12 change areanalyzedover Central and Eastern China.The last, the PCR index are applies in 3 severe 13 weather processes. The result shows that the standard deviation of the 3 h pressure change has less 14 daily variation than the mean value of 3 h pressure change over central and eastern China. The PCR is 15 better as the standard to measure the anomalies of pressure change. The PCR counts in Northeast 16 China, North China, Central and east China area is abnormally large in winter and spring than those in 17 summer and autumn. But in South China area, the PCR counts are abnormally small in autumn. The 18 PCR mainly concentrated in low intensity. When the PCR value is lower, the more likely the strong 19 convective weather will happen. The cyclonic eddy and the huge cold high pressure transition or fast 20 movingis the primary weather influence system that leads to the PCR indices appearance or decrease 21 in Northeast China area and other area, respectively.The PCR appear with the corresponding cloud 22 that less than -52 ℃when surface pressure field is in southwest inverted trough, and probably have 23 some cloud with TBB less than -52 ℃ when the sur