国际管理义n.ppt

* 如何评估汇率？How to Assess the Future Level of RERs IMF publications-international financial statistics If RER down, then nominal exchange rate will be down in the near future compare the inflation rates of two countries if inflation rate increases, nominal exchange rate will be decreased to remain the RER constant RER Movement Effects on Trade RER Exports Imports RER Exports Imports 第三讲国际贸易-汇率与贸易 * 菲律宾的例子 Case of the Philippine Relative stable government Foreign capital increased dramatically RER Export Import unemployment 第三讲国际贸易-汇率与贸易 * RER 变化的原因RER Movement: Reasons-I 1.投资investment demand is greater than savings interest rate will rise foreign capital flow in the country the RER goes up 2.外债external debt increases, RER goes down 第三讲国际贸易-汇率与贸易 * 短期政策与RER Movement 1.short-term government policy reduce inflation promote economic development increase employment 2. Explanation reduce inflation, increase interest rate and RER promote economic development, decrease interest rate and RER 3.Canadian Case-reduce inflation 第三讲国际贸易-汇率与贸易 * RER Movement: Reasons-III 1.the ratio of unit export prices to unit import prices-进出口价格影响 unit export prices decline, RER falls examples: oil-exporting countries, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain(oil prices RER ) 2.some valuable natural resources is discovered RER increases-发现新的资源 Example of Holland’s natural gas discovery RER Exports the so-called Dutch disease 第三讲国际贸易-汇率与贸易 * 3.相对生产率提高productivity increases relative to its trade partners(RER rising or accumulating foreign exchange reserves and investing abroad) 4.例子（phenomena cases）: Japan, Korea, Taiwan(1985-1988)，本币升值 Singapore(1985-1995, $69 billion, maintaining R.E.R.and then increasing the R.E.R) point to the examples: RER is not always highly volatile, only in response to strong economic forces 第三讲国际贸易-汇率与贸易 * 关注RER的长期均衡价值的意义（The long-run equilibrium value of RER-significance） short- term foreign exchange market is a “perfe