Learning In And About Complex Systems Sterman外语英文电子书.pdfVIP

FEATURE Learning In and About Complex Systems John D. Sterman Introduction The greatest constant of modern times is change. Accelerating changes in technology, population, and economic activity are transforming our world, from the prosaic—how information technology influences how we use the telephone—to the profound—how greenhouse gases affect the global climate. Some of the changes are desirable, others defile the planet, impoverish the human spirit, and threaten our survival. They all chal- lenge traditional institutions, practices, and beliefs. Most important, most of the changes we are now struggling to comprehend have arisen as consequences, intended and unin- tended, of humanity itself . The dizzying effects of accelerating change are not new. Henry Adams, a perceptive John D. Sterman observer of the great changes wrought by the Industrial Revolution, formulated a “Law Standish Professor of Management, of Acceleration ” to describe the exponential growth of technology, production, and popu- Director, System Dynamics Group lation that made the legacy of colonial America irrelevant: MIT Sloan School of Management Since 1800, scores of new forces had been discovered; old forces had been raised to higher powers. . . . Complexity ha