美国国债的收益率-布雷德森林体系.docx

美国国债:收益率2009-06-03Buttonwood布雷顿森林体系Not so risk-free并非那么无风险May 28th 2009From The Economist print editionThere are questions about the long-term appeal of American Treasury bonds美国国债的长期表现令人怀疑LIKE London buses, big events in America’s Treasury market all seem to come at once. In a week when the Treasury auctioned more than $100 billion of notes and bonds, ten-year Treasury yields surged to their highest level in six months, despite a buy-back offer by the Federal Reserve. That will raise the cost of finance for companies and homeowners.就像伦敦巴士一样，美国债券市场的大事件都是毫无预兆就发生的。在一周之内，财政部拍卖了多达1000亿美元的债权，尽管联储回购了一部分，十年期国库券的收益率一路飙升到6个月以来的最高点。这会加重公司和家庭的财务成本。All this activity was inevitable once the authorities decided to combine a huge fiscal deficit with quantitative easing (expansion of the money supply). It has been accompanied by a sharp rise in the gap between short and long rates. The ten-year yield has risen from 2.08% on December 18th to 3.70% on May 27th.一旦当权者决定将巨额的财政赤字和数量性政策（货币供给增加）相结合的时候，所有的这些行为都是不可避免的。伴随着债券发放而来的长短期利率之间的差距大幅增加。十年期债券的收益从12月18号的2.08%上涨到了5月27号的3.70%。Some of that rise in yields is undoubtedly due to investors switching back into shares on hopes that the global recession might end next year. But there have also been concerns about America’s long-term financial health. On May 27th Moody’s said it had no plans to reduce America’s coveted AAA debt rating. But on the same day John Taylor, a professor at Stanford University and the creator of the Taylor rule on monetary policy, wrote in the Financial Times that the American government “is now the most serious source of systemic risk.”收益率上涨的从某种程度上说是令人猝不及防的，因为投资者在寄希望于全球大萧条会在明年年底结束的基础上将投资转回了股票市场。但是同样也存在着对美国长期财政健康度的担心。5月27号，Moody’s称他们还没有将美国的AAA级评级下调的计划。在同一天，身为斯坦福大学教授同时也是货币政策上泰勒定律创建者的John Taylor在财经周刊上撰文称：美国政府现在处在最严重的系统风险的萌芽阶段。On the surface, the worries seem odd. Is America likely to default on its obligations? No. To put it another way, if the world ever got into a state where America did prove unable to pay, lots of other