变电站状态检修决策模型与求解-李明1-韩学山1-王勇1-郭志红2-刘国静1.docx

DOI：CNKI:11-2107/TM1813.024网络出版时间：2012-09-2718:13网络出版地址：/kcms/detail/11.2107.TM1813.201225.0_024.html第32卷第25期中国电机工程学报Vol.32No.25Sep.5,20121962012年9月5日ProceedingsoftheCSEE?2012Chin.Soc.forElec.Eng.文章编号：0258-8013(2012)25-0196-07中图分类号：TM71文献标志码：A学科分类号：470?40变电站状态检修决策模型与求解李明1，韩学山1，王勇1，郭志红2，刘国静1(1．山东大学电气工程学院，山东省济南市250061；2．山东电力研究院，山东省济南市250002)Decision-makingModelandSolutionofCondition-basedMaintenanceforSubstationLIMing1,HANXueshan1,WANGYong1,GUOZhihong2,LIUGuojing1(1.SchoolofElectricalEngineering,ShandongUniversity,Jinan250061,ShandongProvince,China;2.ShandongElectricPowerInstitute,Jinan250002,ShandongProvince,China)ABSTRACT:Underthestudyofcondition-basedmaintenanceforpowertransmissionsystem(CBM-PTS),themodelandsolutionofcondition-basedmaintenanceforsubstation(CBM-S)wasstudied.Theequipmentinvolvedinthispaperwereonlyassociatedwiththesubstationfromtheviewofthetopology.ThenecessityoftheresearchforCBM-Swasdiscussedfirst,andtheequipmentconditionintheresearchtimewasobtainedbyMarkovprocessunderthetechniqueofstatemonitoringandforecasting.Furthermore,thequantitativeexpressionofthefailureriskandmaintenanceriskwereprovided,inwhichthemaintenancetimewastheonlyparameter.Then,thedecision-makingmodelofCBM-Swasestablished.Thegoalofthemodelwastominimizethesumoffailureriskandmaintenancerisk,andthemaintenanceconstraintswerealsoconsideredinthismodel.Thegeneticalgorithmwasselectedtosolvethemodel.Theanalysisofsimpleexampledemonstratesthenecessityandeffectivenessofthestudy.ThispaperisthefurtherstudyoftheCBM-PTS,andisanimportantpartofthedecompositionandcoordinationofthedecision-makingprocessforCBM-PTS.KEYWORDS:substation;condition-basedmaintenance;failurerisk;maintenancerisk;Markovprocess摘要：在电网状态检修概念引导下，针对设备在拓扑上仅与变电站关联的设备状态检修决策问题，在假设变电站进出线状态一定的前提下，建立变电站状态检修决策模型。在对变电站实施状态检修决策必要性阐述的基础上，提出在设备状态监测、预测基础上的设备状态转移马尔科夫过程，并基于此方程对前瞻时间内设备状态概率进行求解。进而给出变电站因设备状态检修时机而变动的检修风险和故障风险的数学表达。最后以故障风险与检修风险和的最小为目标，考虑满足状态检修的相关约束条件，构建了变电站状态检修决策模型，并基于成熟的遗传算法实现对该模型的求解。通过简基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目5100704