基于优化组合模型的建设用地增长趋势预测.doc

基于优化组合模型的建设用地 增长趋势预测 李宗华1 汪如民2 童秋英2 （1.武汉市城市规划信息中心，湖北，武汉，430014 2.武汉市国土资源房产信息中心，湖北，武汉，430015） 摘 要：城市建设用地趋势预测是土地利用科学决策的重要依据，指数模型、 logistic模型、灰色系统模型和线性回归等数据分析模型是进行城市建设用地趋势预测的常用模型。采用上述数据分析模型进行预测分析时，由于模型对原始数据的拟合方式不同，预测的结果往往存在一定差异，在差异较大时难以对预测结果进行合理的取舍。基于非线性规划理论的优化组合模型，能够以误差最小化为约束条件，对上述各种单个预测模型进行综合分析比较，从而降低建设用地预测的误差，更准确地反映建设用地的增长趋势。本文以武汉市为例，分别运用指数模型、 logistic模型、灰色系统模型和二元线性回归模型，预测了武汉市2010、2015、2020年三个时点的建设用地需求量，在此基础上，通过优化组合，确定四种预测方法在优化组合模型中的权重系数，得出了优化组合模型的预测结果。研究结果表明，优化组合模型对武汉市的建设用地增长趋势进行了更好的模拟。 关键词：统计数据 建设用地 趋势预测 An Optimized Combination Model for Construction Land Increasing Trend Forecasting Li Zonghua1 Wang Rumin2 Tong Qiuying2 1.Wuhan Urban Planning Information Center, Wuhan 430014 China 2.Wuhan Information Center of land Resource and Real Estate, Wuhan 430015 China Abstract：The trend prediction of urban construction land increasing offers a scientific basis for land use decision-making. The data analysis models such as the exponential modelthe logistic model, the gray system model and the binary linear regression model are generally used in the trend prediction of urban construction land increasing. Due to the different requirement for data and various fitting models, the prediction results based on above models sometimes have some differences and can’t be selected rationally when the difference is larger. The optimized combination model based on non-linear programming, taking the constrained condition of minimal error into account, can synthetically analyze and compare above mentioned single prediction model and reduce the error of construction land prediction. Taking Wuhan as an example, the exponential model, the logistic model, the gray system model and the binary linear regression model are used in this paper to forecast the demand for construction land of Wuhan in the year 2010, 2015 and 2020. Based on this, confirming the weight coefficient of the four prediction models in optimized composite model, optimized prediction result can be obtained. The results