中国对外贸易2009年形势分析及2010年前景展望.pdf

宏 观 经 济 R macro economics 中国对外贸易：2009年形势分析及2010年前景展望 China’s foreign trade: Overall performance in 2009 and perspectives in 2010 石春华 王 毅 作者简介 石春华，中国人民银行调查统计司 王 毅，中国人民银行调查统计司 Authors Shi Chunhua, Financial Survey and Statistics Department, People’s Bank of China Wang Yi, Financial Survey and Statistics Department, People’s Bank of China 摘 要 在全球金融危机背景下，2009年我国对外贸易大幅下滑，但降幅小于欧美日，我国出口占全球出口的比重提升，主要贸易伙伴 格局未变。随着国际经济的触底回升，我国对外贸易降幅逐步收窄。劳动密集型产品相对抗跌，机电和高新技术产品成为出口复苏 的主要动力。2010年世界经济将缓慢复苏，中国对外贸易将出现恢复性增长。同时也应看到，当前全球经济复苏的基础尚不稳固， 中国对外贸易形势仍比较严峻。 Abstract China’s foreign trade declined markedly in 2009 owing to the global financial crisis. However, the decrease was less than the figures in Europe, the United States and Japan. The percentage of China’s exports increased in the global export trade, while our main trading partners remained unchanged. With the international economy recovering, the decrease in China’s foreign trade gradually shrank. Labor-intensive products declined relatively less, while mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products became the major contributors for export recovery. In 2010, the global economy will continue to gradually recover and China’s foreign trade will resume its upward trend. Meanwhile, it should be noted that the global economic recovery is still unstable, due to which China’s foreign trade may still face many challenges. 受金融危机冲击，2009 年国际贸易严重萎缩，中 复性增长。但也应看到，当前全球经济复苏的基础尚 国对外贸易额从 2008 年四季度开始下降，2009 不稳固，中国贸易条件重新恶化，当前宽松的出口退 年一季度达到最大降幅，二季度开始，随着国际经济 税政策也不利于经济结构升级，中国对外贸易形势仍 触底回升，我国对外贸易降幅逐渐收窄 ,四季度转正。 比较严峻。 虽然 2009 年中国出口比上年下降 16%，但在全球市