时间序列分析在建筑物监测中的应用.doc

?基于时间序列的建筑物沉降监测研究 赵士华 上海市城市建设工程学校（上海市园林学校），上海，200232 ) 摘 要: 本文简要介绍了时间序列分析的基本原理、模型建立步骤，并通过一工程实例加以论证，事实证明：时间序列模型可以预报建筑物未来沉降趋势，而且预报的可靠度很高，所以该模型可用于建筑物沉降监测和预报。 关键词: 时间序列分析；沉降监测；沉降预报 Based on the Research of Time Series Analysis Method in Subsidence Monitoring of Building ZHAO Shihua (Urban Construction Engineering School in Shanghai, Shanghai , 200232) Abstract: The basic principle, the method of time serial analysis and steps of a time series analysis model are introduced briefly in the paper. The model which is checked by subsidence monitoring of building example, forecasts the subsidence te