数学建模保险产品的研究设计方案.docVIP

2011年第四届“互动出版杯”数学中国 数学建模网络挑战赛 题 目 你的爱车入保险了吗？ 关 键 词 保费浮动率 决策树 续保率 灰色预测模型 摘 要： 本文运用灰色预测法和最大期望原则下用决策树解决了汽车保险保费浮动和保险公司业绩考核问题在问题。 问题1中，首先通过灰色预测法对不同使用性质的车辆的续保率的影响进行灰色关联度预测，证明使用性质的不同对续保率的影响较大。 然后，统计数据，根据车辆出险比例、赔付款占浮动前保费总额的比例、赔付款占出险车辆浮动前保费的比例，计算出保费浮动系数，提出三种保费浮动方案，经分析，推荐使用保费浮动系数方案如下： 保费浮动系数 家庭自用车 企业非营业用车 出租、租赁车 营业货车 党政机关、事业团体 商车险 0.99 0.99 0.03 0.987 0.99 交强险 0.98 0.99 0.98 0.963 0.996 对于问题2，首先根据要求建立决策树，结合问题1统计的数据，利用不同使用性质的车辆保户数占总保户的百分比进行赋权值，得到决策似累加模型： 其次计算该公司的得分为75.78分，根据公司评价表对其评价为一般。 然后通过对模型的深入分析对该公司今后的风险控制提出相关建议。 最后，对模型进行推广与评价。 参赛队号 1051 所选题目 C 英文摘要（选填） This paper USES grey forecasting method and decision tree solve auto insurance premium floating and insurance companies in the performance evaluation problem. Question 1, first by grey forecasting method to use the vehicles different influence on attachment rate gray associationr-prediction, proof of use of the different nature of the influence of attachment rate is bigger. Then, the statistics data, according to the proportion of vehicles be or get out of danger, PeiFuKuan up before PeiFuKuan proportion of the total premium of be or get out of danger, the proportion of vehicles, up before premium calculated premium floating coefficient, this article proposes three premium floating scheme, classics analysis, recommend using premium floating coefficient plan is as follows: Premium floating coefficient family since the non-operating transport enterprises transport, car rental and leasing business truck in party and government organs, business groups Business 0.987 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.03 insurers 0.996 0.963 0.98 0.99 0.98 vehicle To question 2, first of all, according to the request to establish decision tree, combined with problem 1 statistical data, using different vehicles will enable the percentage of the total number of insured for weighting, get decision like accumulate model: Secondly computed the companys score for 75.78 points, according to the co