三峡库区应急资源鲁棒优化配置研究.docVIP

三峡库区应急资源鲁棒优化配置研究 杨家其 张文芬 武汉理工大学交通学院 武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 按照海事管辖范围划分三峡库区水域, 并以国家相关规定为依据, 综合考虑水域风险, 分析三峡库区各水域应急资源的不确定需求.在探讨水上救助基地应急资源配置机理的基础上, 以应急资源配置总损失和总时间最小为目标, 构建三峡库区水上救助基地应急资源鲁棒优化配置模型.以巡逻船为例, 得到各种不确定需求情形下的巡逻船配置优化方案.研究结论表明:鲁棒优化配置方案基本能实现总配置效果优化。当扰动需求总数位于中间值时, 三峡库区水上救助基地巡逻船配置系统表现出较好的稳定性, 此时巡逻船的机动性较强, 巡逻船配置总量最低。研究成果有助于决策者的风险偏好选择, 实际应用意义较强, 也可为内河相似水域应急资源配置提供决策参考。 关键词： 交通运输工程; 三峡库区; 不确定需求; 鲁棒优化; 应急资源配置; 作者简介：杨家其 (1964—) , 男, 湖北鄂州人, 教授, 博士研究生导师, 主要研究方向:港口航运与综合物流。E-mail:styjq@whut.edu.cn。 收稿日期：2016-06-30 基金：国家自然科学基金项目 Emergency Resources Allocation of Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Robust Optimization YANG Jiaqi ZHANG Wenfen School of Transportation, Wuhan University of Technology; Abstract： According to maritime jurisdiction scope, the Three Gorges Reservoir area is divided into several waters. Considering the relevant regulations of the state and the risk of waters, the uncertain demand of emergency resources of Three Gorges Reservoir area was analyzed. On the basis of exploring the emergency resource allocation mechanism of water rescue base, the emergency resource allocation robust optimization model of Three Gorges Reservoir rescue base was established to minimize the total loss and time of the emergency resource allocation. Taking patrol ships as an example, the optimal allocation scheme of patrol ship under various uncertain demands was obtained. The findings show that: the robust optimal allocation scheme can basically achieve the overall optimization disposition effect. When the total number of disturbance demand is in the middle value, the patrol ship allocation system of the water rescue base in the Three Gorges Reservoir area shows better stability. At the same time, the maneuverability of the patrol ship is stronger, and the total number of patrol ships is the lowest. The research results are helpful for decision-makers choice of risk preference and have