山东海洋主导产业选择及升级的实证分析.docVIP

山东海洋主导产业选择及升级的实证分析 周德田 郭小军 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 将主导产业选择与主导产业升级结合起来进行研究.首先, 利用因子分析法, 以山东省为研究对象, 构建一个可以对海洋产业进行测评的体系, 选择该地区的海洋主导产业.山东省海洋主导产业应选取滨海旅游业、海水利用业、海洋渔业、海洋交通运输业和海洋工程建筑业.其次, 利用灰色关联度方法, 对海洋产业结构与海洋经济增长的关系进行了研究.海洋第三产业对海洋经济起到关键决定性作用.所以, 山东省海洋主导产业应当着重加强属于第三产业的滨海旅游业和海洋交通运输业的升级.最后, 利用时间序列模型对上述5个主导产业进行了未来趋势预测.滨海旅游业和交通运输业在未来几年相较其他3个产业增长更为迅速. 关键词： 主导产业及升级; 因子分析; 灰色关联度分析; 时间趋势模型; 作者简介：周德田 (1961-) , 男, 教授, 主要研究方向为石油经济与区域经济 作者简介：郭小军 (1992-) , 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为产业经济与区域发展 收稿日期：2017-08-16 基金：山东省社科规划课题 (13CGLZ06) ;山东省社科规划课题 (17CJJJ41) An Empirical Analysis on the Selection and Upgrading of Shandong Marine Leading Industry ZHOU Detian GUO Xiaojun School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum; Abstract： This article combines the leading industry selection and leading industry upgrading. Firstly, using thefactor analysis method in Shandong province as the research object, we build the Shandong ocean evaluation systemof leading industry and choose the ocean leading industries in the region. The results show that the marine leadingindustry of Shandong province should select the coastal tourism, seawater utilization, marine fishery, marine transportationand marine engineering construction. Then, the relationship between marine industrial structure and marine economicgrowth is studied by using the grey relational degree method. The results show that the marine third industry plays acrucial role in the marine economy. Therefore, the marine leading industry in Shandong province should focus onstrengthening the coastal tourism industry and the upgrading of the marine transportation industry. Finally, this paperuses time series model of the five leading industries predicts the future trend, shows the final result of coastal tourism andtransportation industry is growing rapidly in the coming years, and the other three industry growth is relatively slow. Keyword： leading industry and u