中国北方冬小麦播种期底墒干旱模型研究.pdfVIP

中国北方冬小麦播种期底墒干旱模型 毛 飞1 霍治国1 李世奎1 侯婷婷1.2 1.中国气象科学研究院 北京 100081 2. 中国农业大学资源与环境学院 北京 100094 摘要 本文用统计方法分析了中国北方地区冬小麦播种期 0 100cm 土壤底墒与当年 7 9 月降水量 7 9 月可能蒸发量 7 9 月水分盈亏量和年降水量 前一年 10 月至当年 9 月 降水量 多年平均降水量 径流量和径流率 8 个影响因子的相关关系 建立了计算冬小麦 播种期土壤底墒的各单因子统计模型和不同 F 检验水平下的多因子统计模型 并对各统计 模型进行了精度比较 选取其中一个模型计算了北方冬小麦区 94 个站 1961 2000 年历年 冬小麦播种期土壤底墒值 初步分析北方冬小麦播种期土壤底墒的变化规律 为北方冬小 麦播种期土壤底墒的计算和预测提供思路和实用的方法 关键词 冬小麦 底墒 模型 中国分类号 文献标识码 A STUDY ON DROUGHT MODEL OF 0 100cm SOIL MOISTURE BEFORE SOWING WINTER WHEAT IN NORTH CHINA 1 1 1 1.2 Mao Fei , Huo Zhi-guo , Li Shi-kui , Hou Ting-ting (1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China 2. College of Resources and Environmental Science of CAU, Beijing 100094, China) Abstract: Based on the methods of statistics, the correlations between 0 100cm soil moisture before sowing winter wheat and rainfall during July to September , crop reference evapotranspiration during July to September ,difference between rainfall and crop reference evapotranspiration during July to September ,annual rainfall, rainfall during last October to this September, mean annual rainfall, annual runoff and rate of annual run off were analyzed in north china. The statistical models calculating 0 100cm soil moisture before sowing winter wheat for every factor and multiplicate factors with several F test levels were established. The degrees of accuracy of these models were compared. The 0 100cm soil moisture before sowing winter wheat in