大型体育场馆紧急情况下的人员疏散研究.docVIP

摘 要近年来，随着北京奥运会等重大体育赛事的举行，我国的体育事业得到了长足的发展。各地都雨后春笋般新建了大量的体育场馆，并在全国范围内掀起了全民健身的高潮，大大增加了体育场馆的使用频率。而体育场馆作为大型公共建筑，属于人员高度密集的场所。一旦发生事故，很容易造成大量的人员伤亡。而体育场馆事故中，人群拥挤踩踏事故是发生频率最高也是最容易引发群死群伤的事故类型。因此，人群拥 挤踩踏事故越来越受到国内外专家学者和科研院所的关注。 应用事故致因理论、事件树和风险理论对体育场馆人群拥挤踩踏事故的发生发展过程进行定性定量分析，研究事故发生的机理，确定事故发生的风险，从而寻求阻止事故发生的方法。人群拥挤踩踏事故主要是由于人群密度过大引发的，而人群密度与人群的移动速度、人群通过率三者之间有着紧密的关系。分析三者之间的关系，了解造成人群密度过大的原因。确定安全疏散总时间的数学模型，得出体育馆疏散时间计算的数学模型，从而能够算出体育场安全疏散的总时间。为体育场馆的建设、人员疏散研究、安全疏散设计、疏散应急预案建立提供有效的依据对于体育场馆安全疏散的研究意义重大。 关键词：大型体育场馆；踩踏事故；风险理论；安全疏散 Abstract In recent years, with the Beijing Olympic Games and other major sporting events heldin Chinas sports undertaking has been considerable development. Have mushroomed in allparts of a large number of new stadiums, and set off a nationwide fitness high tide, greatlyincreasing the frequency of use of the sports venues. The sports stadium as a large-scalepublic buildings, are considered personnel place a high concentration. The event of anaccident, it is likely to cause a large number of casualties. The sports venues incident, acrowd stampede occurred most frequently is the most likely cause of the accident of highhazardous and casualties. Therefore, more and more experts and research institutes pay attention to a crowd stampede. Application of accident causation theory, event trees and risk theory to the crowded stadium stampede accident occurrence and development of qualitative and quantitative analysis to study the mechanism of the accident .Then we can determine the risk of accident and find a way to prevent the accident. A crowd stampede accidents are mainly caused by that population density is too large. While it has a close relationship among the population density，the move speed of population and pass rate. After analyzed the relationship of the three，we can understand the reasons causing the crowd density too large. Determine safe evacuation of the total time mathematical model to arrive at stadium evacuation time calculation mathematical model, wh