人民币应该升值么.PDFVIP

人民币应该升值么？ Should Be Appreciation About RMB? 复旦大学世界经济研究所 华 民 马 涛 马 弘 内容摘要：随着中国外汇储备的不断增加，人民币一直面临着升值的压力，最近 一段时间以来，人民币升值的呼声尤为高涨，更有甚者，还有人建议放弃人民币 钉住美元的、有限管理浮动的汇率制度而走向更为自由的浮动。面对这样的一些 看法，本文在冷静地分析造成人民币升值压力的根源之后认为：人民币升值的压 力主要来自于巨额的资本项目顺差，这种根源于资本项目顺差的本币升值压力是 不可能通过名义汇率的升值而得到缓解的。因此，本文建议采取“交易平衡法” 和“改革平衡法”来缓解与日俱增的人民币升值压力。至于中国汇率制度的选择 则应当有利于减少人们对于人民币的升值预期，并且，为了保持中国宏观经济的 稳定，中国不仅不能改变现行的汇率制度，而且还应当让名义汇率成为中国汇率 政策调整的目标而不是政策调整的工具。 Abstract: Along with foreign exchange repertory continually increase in china, RMB has being faced with the pressure of appreciation. In recent years, the voice of increase in value of RMB is paricularly upswing. Extremely there are many people want to Chinese government give up actual institute of exchange rate and take to more free floating institute of exchange rate. In the face of those opining, this paper ponder the root of the pressure of RMB’s appreciation calmly, analyze the real reason behind the pressure and draw a conclusion: that the pressure against increase in value of RMB mainly come from substantive surplus in balance of payments, especially the one in capital account. Through analyzing the structure of balance of payments and the economic effects of nominal exchange rate increase, we know that it won’t do to alleviate the pressure of RMB’s appreciation in the way of increasing the nominal exchange rate. We propose to mitigate the pressure with the method of ‘ Trade-equity ’ or ‘ Innovate-equity ’. We think that the option of exchange rate system ought to in favor of reducing people’s expectation for the increase in value of RMB, and nominal exchange rate should become the aim of Chinese exchange rate policy adjustment, but not the tool. 一、人民币的升值压力究竟来之何处？ 自1990 年代中期以来，中国出现了经常项目和资本项目的双顺差，外汇储 备余额不断增加，2002 年底达2864 亿美元，比上年末增长34.9%，2003 年3 月 达到了3160 亿美元。目前我国外汇储备余额仅次于日本，位居世界第二（资料 来源：商务部 ，央行 ，国家统计局 。）。正是中国数量巨大的