明代GDP试探-清华大学经济管理学院.PDF

明代GDP 试探 管汉晖 李稻葵∗ 摘要：本文尝试利用现代国民经济核算方法系统研究明代经济史，以期为中国经济史的整体 研究提供一个基础和起点。利用《明实录》、《明史食货志》、《大明会典》、《万历会计录》和 地方志等历史典籍和文献对经济数据的记载，并借鉴前人对明代经济史定量研究的成果，我 们整理和估算了 1402 至1626 年的明代主要经济变量，从而对明代经济进行总体描述，并和 工业革命之前的英国经济相应变量比较，明确中国当时的经济发展水平及在世界上的地位。 我们的结论主要有：明代中国大多数时间整体经济增长并不快，平均年GDP 增长率为0.29 ％；虽然总经济规模有所增长，人均年收入没有明显变化，基本维持在8 公石(521 公斤)小 麦上下；以1990 年美元计值的人均收入为200 美元左右，上限为260 美元，远低于麦迪森 估算的 600 美元的水平；经济结构中农业所占比重在90 ％左右，手工业和商业最高时也没 有突破 20 ％；政府税收在经济中所占比重在3 ％到10 ％之间，明中叶以后军费开支占到了 中央政府支出的60%到90 ％；经济中的年均积累率为0.83 ％。 关键词：明代 GDP 经济结构 China’s GDP in the Ming Dynasty Guan Hanhui David Daokui Li (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University； Center for China in the World Economy, Tsinghua University) Abstract: We estimate GDP and its composition of the Chinese Ming Dynasty by using methods of modern national income accounting, in order to provide a foundation for further systemic research of Chinese economic history. Searching through a large amount of historical literature, such as “Ming shilu”, “Mingshi shihuo zhi”, “Da Ming huidian”, “fiscal notes in the Wanli Emporeor”, and surveying the findings of quantitative economic history conducted by the pioneers in this field, we calculated the major economic variables of the Ming Dynasty between 1402 and 1626. We also compare our findings with those of the British economy before the Industrial Revolution in order to understand China’s relative standing in the world economy at that time. We conclude that in most periods, the Ming Dynasty’s GDP grew slowly, the average annual GDP growth rate being 0.29 ％; GDP per capita did not change significantly, which maintained at the level of 8 gongshi (around 429.6 kg) wheat per capita; Measured by t