临界损失分析-AmericanBarAssociation.pptVIP

These Views Are Not Necessarily Those of the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (or of any individual commissioner) 本文仅代表作者个人观点 不代表联邦贸易委员会或任何委员的观点 A Critical Look At Critical Loss 对临界损失分析的一个审视 Three Goals of this Talk本次讨论的三个目标 CLA Defined. How it is Used (and at times misused) 定义临界损失分析：如何使用（有时误用） CLA: Special Cases 临界损失分析：特殊情况 CLA and Competitive Effects 临界损失分析和竞争效应 What Critical Loss Is临界损失分析是什么？ It is an effort to answer the following question: “Would a price increase of X percent be profitable?” 临界损失分析试图回答以下问题：“将价格提高X%是否有利可图？” MC P0 P1 Added ? 增加的利润 Lost ? 损失的利润 The Pain vs. The Gain 提价的得与失 Price, Cost 价格，成本 Quantity 产量 Two Effects from Raising Price提价带来的两种效应 a. Lower ? from losing sales a. 由于销量损失而失去的利润 b. Greater ? on sales at higher prices b. 由于提价而增加的利润 Enter CLA 进入临界损失分析 If losses are than some “Critical” amount, the X% price increase raises profits 如果损失的销量小于某一“临界”数量，则X%的提价能够增加利润。 Some Economics of Profit Maximization一些关于利润最大化的经济学 Firms maximize profit by setting MR =MC 企业通过设定边际收益 =边际成本取得 最大利润 This generates the following relationship: (P-Marginal Cost)/P = 1 / (the firm’s demand elasticity) 据此可得出以下关系： Lesson: In general, when a firm’s price-cost margin is high, it doesn’t lose many sales from raising price a little. And, it doesn’t gain many sales when it lowers price a little 经验：一般而言，当企业的价格成本利润率很高时，小幅提价不会损失很多销售量，小幅降价也不会增加很多销售量。 . Pretty Lady is Merging with Beautiful Fragrance 漂亮女士与美丽香水的合并  Profit-maximizing P, Pre-merger, is $100 for Both 合并前双方的利润最大化价格都是$100 Per unit Marginal Cost for Both is Constant at $75 双方每单位的边际成本恒为$ 75 Price Elasticity of Demand Facing Pretty Lady is -4 漂亮女士所面临的需求价格弹性为-4 One-quarter of Lost Pretty Lady Sales Go to Beautiful Fragrance 漂亮女士所损失的销售量有四分之一被美丽香水收入囊中 Critical Loss Unilateral Effects Question: 临界损失单边效应问题： Will the merged firm profit from a 5% increase in the price of Pretty Lady? 将漂亮女士的价格提高5%，合并后的企业是否将会获利？ Did you notice…你是否注意到… That we just analyzed a merger’s comp