级宏观课件11通货膨胀与失业之间的短期权衡取舍.pptVIP

* * * * * * * .” * * * * * * * * THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF * 格林斯潘时代（The Greenspan Era） Inflation rate (% per year) Unemployment rate (%) Inflation and unemployment were low during most of Alan Greenspan’s years as Fed Chairman. 1987 90 92 2000 94 96 98 06 02 05 THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF * 伯南克的挑战 总需求冲击: 次贷危机，房价下降，赎回权的取消，金融体系的危机 总供给冲击: 农产品价格上升 石油价格上升 失业率上升 通胀率从2.6% 上升到 4.9%。 The Phillips Curve During the Financial Crisis Inflation rate (% per year) Unemployment rate (%) 2006 The financial crisis caused aggregate demand to plummet, sharply increasing unemployment and reducing inflation 2007 2008 2009 CONCLUSION The theories in this chapter come from some of the greatest economists of the 20th century. They teach us that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run negatively related in the short run affected by expectations, which play an important role in the economy’s adjustment from the short-run to the long run SUMMARY The Phillips curve describes the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. In the long run, there is no tradeoff: inflation is determined by money growth, while unemployment equals its natural rate. Supply shocks and changes in expected inflation shift the short-run Phillips curve, making the tradeoff more or less favorable. SUMMARY The Fed can reduce inflation by contracting the money supply, which moves the economy along its short-run Phillips curve and raises unemployment. In the long run, though, expectations adjust and unemployment returns to its natural rate. Some economists argue that a credible commitment to reducing inflation can lower the costs of disinflation by inducing a rapid adjustment of expectations. 1中国经济复苏乏力的原因？ 2在中国经济增长放缓的形势下，中国央行为什么没有等方法，实行宽松的货币政策。 3人民币为什么要国际化？人民币国际化对中国的利弊？ 4 人民币国际化过程中，中国已经采取了哪些措施？未来还要采取哪些措施？ 5热钱对一国经济的影响？ THE SHORT-RUN TRADE-OFF * * * * * * * Unemployment is a serious and complicated problem with a variety of causes. To most effectively address such a problem, we need t