哈尔滨市52路公交车到站时间预测方法研究.doc

本科学生毕业论文 哈尔滨市52路公交车到站时间预测方法研究 系部名称： 汽车工程系 专业班级： 交通工程 B0 -15班 学生姓名： safdgg 指导教师： 白竹 职 称： 助教 黑 龙 江 工 程 学 院 二○○九年六月 The Graduation Thesis for Bachelors Degree Study on the Arrival Time Prediction Methods of No.52 Bus in Harbin Candidate：Qiu Xueyan Specialty：Traffic Engineering Class： B05-15 Supervisor：Teacher Assistant. Bai Zhu Heilongjiang Institute of Technology 2009-06·Harbin  摘　　要 随着人们经济活动的日益频繁，生活质量的不断提高，人们对时间价值的认识和重视程度也越来越明显。时间的重要性，在公交中受到人们重视性。出行时间的价值已成为所有公交和相关评价中的重要问题。因此作为客运交通的主要组成部分的公交，其站点间预测方法的研究提上日程。As the economic activities become frequent increasingly, and the continuous improvement in quality of life, peoples awareness and attention of the time value has become increasingly obvious. As a result of the impact of peoples living standards, the importance of time takes a sexual attention by people in transit. The value of travel time becomes an important issue for all public transportation and related evaluation.Arrival time forecast is to be provided to facilitate travel for bus passengers, reduce the waiting time for passengers, but also improved the environment for public transport site, so that passengers can be more effective, reasonable arrangements for their travel time. Therefore, the buses which as a main component of the bus passenger traffic, its inter-site travel time prediction method of time are on the agenda.  It is an important research content that link travel time is the traffic flow guidance system and traffic control system, bus arrival time prediction is based on link travel time forecast. In this paper, we use the exponential smoothing, adaptive exponential smoothing, gray prediction model system and multi-model data fusion algorithm to predict bus travel time. Then on the bases of travel time prediction to predict the bus arrival time. From the forecast results, the multi-data fusion algorithm for model predictive accuracy is superior to other methods of