Chapter 9 Decision Analysis 1 DECISION ANALYSIS 管理科学英文版教学课件.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Lecture Lecture Management Science:Operations Research(OR) Chapter 9 DECISION ANALYSIS * * Lecture 9.1 Introduction to Decision Analysis Elements: ? (1) Decision maker (“we”), ? (2) Choices (decisions, strategies), ? (3) Payoffs * Lecture * Selection problems. Define a binary variable yj for each decision with yj = 1, if we make decision j, and 0 otherwise. A selection problem with n possible decisions will then feature the constraint y1 + y2 + …+ yn = 1. * Lecture * Multiple criteria (MCDM = multiple criteria decision making Multiple states of nature – decision analysis = games against nature. * Lecture * Example: Consider a problem with three decisions d1, d2, and d3, and four states of nature s1, s2, s3, and s4. The payoffs are shown below. * Lecture * s1 s2 s3 s4 d1 3 ?2 4 6 d2 2 0 ?4 1 d3 5 2 0 ?3 This game is ? (1) asymmetric: the decision maker is rational (looks at the payoffs), while nature is a random player ? (2) a simultaneous game (we do not know in advance what state of nature will be chosen). * Lecture * Certainty - … -Risk - …- Uncertainty Certainty: we know exactly which strategy nature will play. Risk: we know the probability distribution nature uses to play her strategies (e.g., by way of past observations) ? Uncertainty: we do not know even the probability distribution of nature’s strategies (e.g., new untried product). * Lecture * 9.2 Visualizations of Decision Problems Macro view: Influence diagrams. Micro view: Decision trees. ? Influence diagrams: Decision nodes, random nodes, consequence nodes. Shows general interrelations between decisions, chance events, results/outcomes * Lecture * Influence diagrams * Lecture * Decision tree * Lecture * 9.3 Decision Rules Under Uncertainty and Risk General procedure for all decision rules: Determine anticipated outcomes for all decisions. Dominances One decision (row) dominates another, if its payoffs are all greater or equal tha