电力市场电价预测.doc

XX大学 本科生毕业设计 题目：电力市场下的电价预测 学 院： 专 业：电气工程及其自动化 指导老师： 学 生： 学 号： 日 期： 电力市场下的电价预测 （电气工程及其自动化） 指导老师 xxx 摘要：随着电力行业逐渐由垄断经营走向竞争，作为电力市场的核心因素即电价，相应地也发生了较大的变化。作为电力市场的参与者，其利益最终是通过电能的交易实现的，提前知道电价的信息，就可以在电力市场的交易中获得更大的利益，因此，电价预测，主要是指系统边际价格预测，就成为电力市场中首要解决的课题之一。典型的电价预测方法有倍比点对点预测、回归预测、灰色理论预测、神经元网络预测、模糊逻辑预测等。本次论文首先介绍了电力市场下电价产生的背景和研究电价的意义，阐述了电价预测的基本概念、原理、分类方法及意义。接着，通过对电价预测模型生成过程的介绍和建立电价预测模型的分析，提出了几种电价预测算法，举出一个实例，详细通过倍比点对点方法和回归法对第二天（即交易日）各交易时段的市场电价作出预测并滚动预测十日电价，最后对运用这两种方法分别产生的数据结果做出理论分析和比较，以达到掌握这两种方法的目的。 关键词：电力市场，电价预测，倍比点对点，回归法 Abstract: As the marketing of the electric power industry have changed from monopolizing managing into competitively, the electric price is taking a notable change, which be the core factor of electric power market. Participators in electric power market have to get there benefit only through the electric exchange. So getting the electric price information in advance is a key reason for the maximum benefit in the electric power market business. Electric price forecast, mainly for the system boundary, becomes the main point of the electric market research. The forecast models of electric price include Grey Forecast，Regress Forecast，Flat Forecast and so on. This paper introduces the price background of the electric market and the research signification, expounds electric price forecasts basic conception, principle, how to classify besides the signification. Then, through the introduce and analyse towards the creating model process of the electric price forecast, comes up with several ways forecasted, arises an example, particularly forecast the every times electric price in coming day through Flat forecast and Regress Forecast，including the forecast of following ten days price. At last, theory analysis and comparison about the statistic of the data from the forecast could bring up a clearly ways to understand the two methods mentioned above well. Keywords: Power Market，Price Forecast，Flat forecast，Regress