河北省人力资本与经济增长的实证分析An empirical analysis of human capital and economic growth in Hebei.pdfVIP

Classified Index: CODE: 10075 U.D.C.: NO: 040140 A Dissertation for the Degree of M. Economics Demonstration of Human Capital and Economic Growth in Hebei Province Candidate: Li Lihong Supervisor: Prof.Wang Huiqiang Academic Degree Applied for: Master of Economics Specialty: Statistics University: HeBei University Date of Oral Examination: June, 2006 摘 要 摘 要 人类进入新时期，经济增长已被赋予新的内涵。人力资本由于能使其它生产要素产 生递增的收益，而被视为推动经济持续增长的源泉和主要动力，西方发达国家和新兴工 业化国家经济发展的实践也证明了这一点。河北省自改革开放以来，人们已逐渐认识到 知识、人才是转变经济增长方式、提高经济增长质量的关键性因素。 本文以河北省为研究对象，主要对河北人力资本与经济增长之间的关系进行了定量 研究。论文首先归纳总结了国内外有关人力资本与经济增长理论的研究成果；然后，介 绍本文用于人力资本与经济增长定量分析的计量模型；最后，根据河北省改革开放以来 的相关数据，采用先进的计量经济学方法，对河北省人力资本与经济增长时间序列进行 相关关系分析、平稳性检验、格兰杰因果检验和协整检验，并在此基础上建立误差修正 模型来估计长期和短期的影响，建立河北省生产函数有效劳动模型和外部性模型来计算 1978-2004年期间人力资本的产出弹性以及对经济增长的直接和间接贡献率。 关键词 人力资本 经济增长 贡献率 I Abstract Abstract As human being entered the new time, economic growth has been entrusted with the new connotation. Making the other elements of production produce increasing income, human capital is regarded as the fountainhead and the main power which impetus sustainable economic growth. The western developed country and the newly industrialized country economy development practice has also proven this point. Hebei Province since the reform and open policy, people had realized gradually that the knowledge and the