2015中国宏观经济预测中更新.PDFVIP

中国人民银行工作论文 No.2015/9 PBC Working Paper No.2015/9 2015年6月9日 June 9,2015 2015 年中国宏观经济预测(年中更新) 1 马骏 刘斌 贾彦东 李建强 洪浩 熊鹭 摘要：去年 12 月以来，国内外经济和政策环境发生了一系列变化。根据这些新 的情况，我们对 2015 年中国宏观经济预测进行了更新。我们估计，虽然上半年 经济增速低于预期，但由于稳增长政策的时滞效应、房地产市场企稳以及世界经 济复苏等原因，下半年我国经济环比增速将会略高于上半年。与去年 12 月本小 组所作的预测相比，我们将2015年全年GDP增速的基准预测略微下调至7.0%（下 调0.1个百分点），CPI涨幅预测下调为1.4%（下调0.8个百分点），对经常项 目顺差与GDP比例的预测上调至2.9%（上调0.5个百分点）。    Abstract: Since December last year, both the domestic conditions of and external environment for the Chinese economy have experienced a number of changes. This report provides the mid-year update of our China macroeconomic forecast for 2015. Although GDP growth in the first half of this year has been weaker than expected, we have reasons to expect some modest recovery in sequential growth in the second half of this year. Compared with our forecast published in December last year, we revise down our 2015 full-year GDP growth forecast to 7.0% (from 7.1%), cut our CPI inflation forecast to 1.4% (from 2.2%), and raise the forecast for current account balance/GDP ratio to 2.9% (from 2.4%).   关键词： 宏观经济预测；GDP；CPI；经常项目顺差   声明：中国人民银行工作论文发表人民银行系统工作人员的研究成果，以利于开展学术交 流与研讨。论文内容仅代表作者个人学术观点，不代表人民银行。如需引用，请注明来源 为《中国人民银行工作论文》。 Disclaimer: The Working Paper Series of the Peoples Bank of China (PBC) publishes research reports written by staff members of the PBC, in order to facilitate scholarly exchanges. The views of these reports are those of the authors and do not represent the PBC. For any quotations from these