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Cyclical unemployment is the gap between the two lines. In recessions, the actual unemployment rate is higher than the natural rate, and cyclical unemployment is positive. In booms, unemployment is below the natural rate and cyclical unemployment is negative. Sources: Unemployment rate from FRED, series UNRATE, quarterly (average of monthly rates) Natural rate of unemployment from CBO, /Spreadsheets.cfm, scroll down to Table 2-2. * In later chapters, we will study short-run economic fluctuations and learn more about the causes and possible cures of cyclical unemployment. For the rest o
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