未来全球农业至关重要100个问题.docxVIP

未来全球农业至为重要的100个问题王松良、曹志全翻译（福建农林大学作物科学学院，福州 350002）摘要:尽管在过去的半个世纪中全球粮食生产有显著的增长，但当今社会需要面对的最重要挑战之一是，如何养活21世纪中叶全球即将达到的90亿人口。为了满足粮食需求又不明显增加粮价，基于气候变化所带来的影响，对能源安全、地区饮食结构变迁的关注，以及到2015年全球贫穷和饥饿减半的千年目标，估计届时世界粮食要比目前增产70%-100%或者更多。农业生产的目标已不在简单地追求生产力的最大化，更在于优化区域产量、乡村发展、环境保护和社会公平与粮食消费之间的资源分配。同时，还有一些重大的挑战是如何制定适当的国内与国际政策以满足不断涌现对土地的永续利用与农业生产效率提高的要求。尽管基于证据的决策机制不断得到越来越得到重视，但横亘在科学家、农民与决策者之间信息流的缺少使得上述挑战更加艰巨。本文应用前景筛选途径（horizon-scanning approach）编辑全球相关农业研究机构和组织的顶尖科学家和行业代表的意见，确认当前全球农业至为重要的100个问题，以此促进农业研究与政策之间的对话与了解，本文的主要目的是应用可靠的科学证据为决策者在未来农业研究优先领域的规划和政策制定提供支持。可以预见，如果能够解决这些问题，将对全球农业实践具有重大影响，同时能够增强农业政策、实践与研究三者之间的协同作用。本研究是英国政府未来全球食品和农作项目的一部分内容。关键词：农作；粮食安全；全球农业；前景筛选途径；政策；研究问题原文题目：The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture*原文通讯作者：Jules Pretty**通讯作者单位：University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, Essex CO4 3SQ, UK.原文英文摘要：Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70–100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental,social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges?? to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-ba