宏观经济学课件第27章-EpilogueThe Story of Macroeconomics.pptVIP

27-1 Keynes and the Great Depression The history of modern macroeconomics starts in 1936, with the publication of Keynes’s General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. 27-1 Keynes and the Great Depression In the process of deriving effective demand, Keynes introduced many of the building blocks of modern macroeconomics: The relation of consumption to income, and the multiplier. Liquidity preference (the term given to the demand for money). The importance of expectations in affecting consumption and investment; and the idea that animal spirits are a major factor behind shifts in demand and output. Paul Samuelson wrote the first modern economics textbook: Economics The most influential formalization of Keynes’s ideas was the IS-LM model, developed by John Hicks and Alvin Hansen in the 1930s and early 1940s. Discussions became organized around the slopes of the IS and LM curves. In the 1950s, Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman independently developed the theory of consumption, and insisted on the importance of expectations. In 1956, Robert Solow developed the growth model—a framework to think about the determinants of growth. Milton Friedman was the intellectual leader of the monetarists, and the father of the theory of consumption. He believed that the understanding of the economy remained very limited, and questioned the motives and ability of governments to improve macroeconomic outcomes. In the 1960s, debates between Keynesians and monetarists dominated the economic headlines. The debates centered around three issues: the effectiveness of monetary policy versus fiscal policy, the Phillips curve, and the role of policy. Friedman challenged the view that fiscal policy could affect output faster and more reliably than monetary policy. In a 1963 book, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960, Friedman and Anna Schwartz reviewed the history of monetary policy and concluded that monetary policy was not only very powerful, but that movemen