对国家级渍涝风险气象预报预警业务模型的优化与-中国气象局图书馆.PDF

气象科技 进展 对国家级渍涝风险气象预报预警业务模型 的优化与改进 1, 2 1 2 包红军 王莉莉 梁莉 （1 国家气象中心，中国气象局，北京 100081；2 中国气象局公共气象服务中心，北京 100081） 摘要：目前的国家级渍涝风险气象预报预警业务是以VIC（Variable Infiltration Capacity）水文模型与渍涝发布标准为技 术基础制作发布的。基于USGS提供的30分辨率的DEM订正流域数字水系，基于流域物理特征建立Mukingum-Cunge 汇流模型的参数自动优选方案，利用虚拟线性水库技术解决西部高海拔地区误报情况，基于ECMWF细网格预报实现未 来72小时的渍涝风险气象预报预警，以提高渍涝风险气象预报预警模型精度与预见期。以2014年3月与5月珠江流域两 次强降水引发渍涝为试验个例进行验证，改进的模型预报预警效果好于原业务模型。 关键词：渍涝风险气象预报预警，数字水系，参数自动优选，线性水库，珠江流域 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2015.02.007 Optimization and Improvement of Water Logging Water Logged Risk Meteorological Forecast and Warning Operational Technology of China 1, 2 1 2 Bao Hongjun , Wang Lili , Liang Li (1 National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081 2 CMA Public Meteorological Service Centre, Beijing 100081) Abstract: National meteorological operation of water logging water logged meteorological forecast and warning is based on VIC (V ariable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model and its release criteria. In this study, digital watershed is corrected with high resolution DEM data of USGS, Mukingum-Cunge routing model automatic parameters optimization is based on watershed physical characteristic linear reservoir method, and virtual linear reservoir method is used to correct the false alarm cases in high altitude of China West. In order to increase alarm lead time, the high resolution 72 hours forecasts of ECMWF are applied for water logging water logged meteorological forecast and warning operational service. Taking the water logging water log