管理学规划工具与技术[全稿].doc

管 理 学 规划工具与技术 任维廉 You can trust a crystal ball about as far as you throw it3/a. —Faith Popcorn, US futurologist 纲 要 1 评估环境之技术 2 分配资源的技术 3 其他规划工具 1 评估环境之技术 1. 环境扫瞄 (scanning) 2. 预测 (forecasting) 3. 标竿竞争 (benchmarking) 讨论：绩效评估矩阵图与竞争形势分析图 2 分配资源之技术 1. 预算：收入，费用，利润，现金 2. 排程：Gantt图，PERT网路分析图 3. 损益平衡分析 4. 线性规划 讨论：若只能在McDonald用餐，则在支出最少，且满足最基本营养的前提下，应如何选购餐点之种类数量。 3 其他规划工具 1. 专案管理 2. 剧本为基础之规划 3. 软体: Project 2000 补充：Team work 1. Case study: a manager’s dilemma (p.267) 2. Thinking critically about ethics (p.270) 3. Internet-based exercise (p.284) 4. Team-based exercise (p.298) 回顾 1. competitive strategy VS. benchmarking 2. Budget: planning, controlling 作业一 上网作业 进入未来世界学会（The World Future Society），看它的杂志〈未来家〉（The Futurist），将会有助於你做环境预测及策略性思考，试著写出你的心得。 Steps In Benchmarking Form a benchmarking planning team Prepare and implement action plan Gather internal and external data Analyze data to identify performance gaps Best Practices 绩效评估矩阵 竞争形势分析图 范例分析 –绩效评估矩阵 范例分析–竞争形势分析图 A Gantt Chart Month Activity Edit Manuscript Design Sample Pages Draw Artwork Print Galley Proofs Print Page Proofs Design Cover 1 4 3 2 Reporting Date Goals Actual Progress 5 A Load Chart Month Editors Anne Antonio Kim Maurice Dave Penny 1 Work scheduled 2 3 4 6 A PERT Network for Constructing an Office Building A PERT Network For Constructing An Office Building A E B D F C H I G J K Start 10 6 14 6 3 3 5 5 5 3 4 3 1 5 A PERT Network For Constructing An Office Building A E B D F C H I G J K Start 10 6 14 6 3 3 5 5 5 3 4 3 1 5 Breakeven = FC / P-avc $90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Revenue/Cost($) 100 200 300 400 500 600 Output (in thousands) Breakeven Point Total Revenue Total Costs Loss Area Profit Area Variable Costs Fixed Costs ? Prentice Hall, 2002 Production Data for Cinnamon Scented Products ? Prentice Hall, 2002 9-* Graphical Solution To Linear Programming Problem 100 200 300 400 500 600 Quantity of Potp