国外的物流讲义2.ppt

Chapter 2Fundamental Simulation Concepts What We’ll Do ... Underlying ideas, methods, and issues in simulation Software-independent (setting up for Arena) Centered around an example of a simple processing system Decompose the problem Terminology Simulation by hand Some basic statistical issues Overview of a simulation study The System:A Simple Processing System General intent: Estimate expected production Time in queue, queue length, proportion of time machine is busy Time units: arbitrary, but … Be consistent (simulation doesn’t know) Be reasonable (interpretation, roundoff error) Model Specifics Initially (time 0) empty and idle Time units: minutes Arrival times: 0.00, 6.84, 9.24, 11.94, 14.53 Interarrival times: 6.84, 2.40, 2.70, 2.59, 0.73 Service times: 4.58, 2.96, 5.86, 3.21, 3.11 Stop when 15 minutes of (simulated) time have passed Goals of the Study:Output Performance Measures Total production of parts over the run (P) Average waiting time of parts in queue: Maximum waiting time of parts in queue: Goals of the Study:Output Performance Measures (cont’d.) Time-average number of parts in queue: Maximum number of parts in queue: Average and maximum flowtime of parts (time in system, a.k.a. cycle time): Goals of the Study:Output Performance Measures (cont’d.) Utilization of the machine (proportion of time busy) Many others possible (information overload?) Analysis Options Educated guessing Average interarrival time = 3.05 minutes Average service time = 3.94 minutes Model will “explode” eventually (but maybe not in 15 minutes) If averages had come out for stable queue, assume all interarrivals, service times were equal to these values (no variability) — never a queue! Truth — between these extremes Guessing has its limits Analysis Options (cont’d.) Queueing theory Requires additional assumptions about the model Popular, simple model: M/M/1 queue Interarrival times ~ exponential Service times ~ exponential, indep. of interarrivals E(servic