[自然科学]Risk assessment.pptVIP

RISK ASSESSMENT By Dr J S Edwards Risk assessment Historically, landfill design was based on the selection of design features from a menu of alternatives to achieve a specific goal (containment). Above approach assumes goal can be achieved by suitable choice of technique. The modern view – ALL LINERS LEAK ! Thus – examine factors governing leakage and apply probability analysis. This enables estimation of: Probable leakage rate Consequent impact Risk assessment Acceptability of a landfill design should be assessed by a process which quantifies the probable impact for each source on each receptor. This is RISK ASSESSMENT and is used in an iterative way to produce an acceptable design. Use of probabilistic risk assessment underpins the modern approach to design and operation of landfills. Extreme events should also be considered. Risk assessment Process of risk assessment: Identify all potential impacts. For each potential impact, identify: SOURCE PATHWAY RECEPTOR Establish the source term by geotechnical and other investigations. Derive a relationship between landfill and receptor using a probability distribution for the source term and each pathway element. Risk assessment Establish sensitivity of the receptor (background levels, statutory limits, policy etc.) Consider impact on the receptor and its acceptability. Repeat the process to obtain satisfactory design. The Loscoe incident Loscoe weather The Loscoe incident Site history: 1879 Mining for coal, clay, stone. 1966 Mineral working by opencast consent. Backfilled with inert material. 1977-79 Municipal waste site. 1982 Tipping ceased and site capped Recorded events prior to explosion: Pear tree at 51 Clarke avenue dies (1983) Lawns die in the area Smells common (‘sewer’ smell) Soil warm Methane in water in gardens The Loscoe incident Gas migration pathways Risk assessment for landfills Risk analysis RISK – “the probability that a particular adverse event occurs during a stated period o