Aizenman-2010-三元悖论.pdfVIP

Journal of International Money and Finance 29 (2010) 615–641 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of International Money and Finance journal homepage: /locate/jimf The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration Joshua Aizenman a, *, Menzie D. Chinn b, Hiro Ito c,1 a Department of Economics E2, UCSC, E2, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA b Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA c Department of Economics, Portland State University, 1721 SW Broadway, Portland, OR 97201, USA a b s t r a c t JEL Classification Nos: This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects F 15 economic performance in developing countries. We find that F 21 greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, F31 while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater F36 F41 output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation; O24 greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial open- Keywords: ness is linked with lower inflation; pursuit of exchange rate Impossible trinity stability can increase output volatility when financial devel