[工学]系统工程3.ppt

3.1 Introduction of DA Knowledge points Introduce example Application in some other fields The function and importance of DA Explain a prototype example Decision making without experimentation Kinds of Decision Analysis Characteristics of Decision Analysis Formulation of the Prototype Example in This Framework 3.1 Introduction of DA Knowledge points Introduce example Application in some other fields The function and importance of DA Explain a prototype example Decision making without experimentation Kinds of Decision Analysis Characteristics of Decision Analysis Formulation of the Prototype Example in This Framework Decisions often must be made in environment that are much more fraught with uncertainty . Example: The GOFERBROKE COMPANY owns a tract of land that may contain oil. A consulting geologist has reported to the manager that she believes there is 1 chance in 4 of oil. Because of this prospect, another oil company has offered to purchase the land for $90,000. However, Goferbroke is considering holding the land in order to drill for oil itself. The cost of drilling is $100,000. If oil is found, the resulting expected revenue will be $800,000, so the companys expected profit (after deducting the cost of drilling) will be $700,000. A loss of $100,000 (the drilling cost) will be incurred if the land is dry (no oil). How to approach the decision of whether to drill or sell based just on these data. (We will refer to this as the first Goferbroke Co. problem.) However, before deciding whether to drill or sell, another option is to conduct a detailed seismic survey of the land to obtain a better estimate of the probability of finding oil. 3.1 Introduction of DA Knowledge points Introduce example Application in some other fields The function and importance of DA Explain a prototype example Decision making without experimentation Kinds of Decision Analysis Characteristics of Decision Analysis Formulation of the Prototype Example in This Framework 1. A manufacturer i