宏观经济变量可以解释长期的股市走势？一个美国和日本比较研究[文献翻译].docVIP

外文题目：Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements?A comparison of the US and Japan 出 处：School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK, 作 者：Andreas Humpe Peter Macmillan Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements?A comparison of the US and Japan By Andreas Humpe Peter Macmillan 原文： ABSTRACT Within the framework of a standard discounted value model we examine whether a number of macroeconomic variables influence stock prices in the US and Japan. A cointegration analysis is applied in order to model the long term relationship between industrial production, the consumer price index, money supply, long term interest rates and stock prices in the US and Japan. For the US we find the data are consistent with a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices are positively related to industrial production and negatively related to both the consumer price index and a long term interest rate. We also find an insignificant (although positive) relationship between US stock prices and the money supply. However, for the Japanese data we find two cointegrating vectors. We find for one vector that stock prices are influenced positively by industrial production and negatively by the money supply. For the second cointegrating vector we find industrial production to be negatively influenced by the consumer price index and a long term interest rate. These contrasting results may be due to the slump in the Japanese economy during the 1990s and consequent liquidity trap. Keywords: Stock Market Indices, Cointegration, Interest Rates. I. Introduction. A significant literature now exists which investigates the relationship between stock market returns and a range of macroeconomic and financial variables, across a number of different stock markets and over a range of different time horizons. Existing financial economic theory provides a number of models that provide a framework for the study of this relations