江苏大学系统动力学课 第六讲.pptVIP

S型增长模式示例 S型增长模式示例 S型增长模式示例 S型增长模式示例 S型增长模式示例 S型增长模式示例 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 一阶反馈系统也会呈现复杂的系统行为！ 考察某商品的销售问题。假定： 销售量正比于还没有购买该商品的人数 每人只需一件这样的商品 总人数是恒定的 商品更新的周期远大于商品普及所需的时间 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 (1) FRACTION = 0.06 Units: dmnl/Month (2) TOTAL BUYERS = 100 Units: person (3) buy rate = FRACTION*potential buyers Units: person/Month (4) Buyers = INTEG(buy rate,1) Units: person (5) potential buyers = TOTAL BUYERS-Buyers Units: person FINAL TIME: 60 TIME STEP: 0.5 Units: Month TOTAL BUYERS potential buyers FRACTION buy rate Buyers - + + 一阶负反馈系统的行为是单调地趋于目标 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 FINAL TIME: 60 TIME STEP: 0.5 Units: Month Buyers 100 75 50 25 0 0 30 60 Time (Month) FRACTION = 0.06 dmnl/Month TOTAL BUYERS = 100 person TOTAL BUYERS potential buyers FRACTION buy rate Buyers - + + 一阶负反馈系统的行为是单调地趋于目标 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 FINAL TIME: 60 TIME STEP: 0.5 Units: Month FRACTION = 0.1 dmnl/Month TOTAL BUYERS = 100 person Buyers 100 75 50 25 0 0 30 60 Time (Month) TOTAL BUYERS potential buyers FRACTION buy rate Buyers - + + 一阶负反馈系统的行为是单调地趋于目标 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 FINAL TIME: 60 TIME STEP: 0.5 Units: Month TOTAL BUYERS = 100 person Buyers 100 75 50 25 0 0 15 30 45 60 Time (Month) FRACTION = 0.1 FRACTION = 0.06 FRACTION = 0.01 TOTAL BUYERS potential buyers FRACTION buy rate Buyers - + + 一阶负反馈系统的行为是单调地趋于目标 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 Buyers 100 75 50 25 0 15 30 45 60 Time (Month) FRACTION = 0.1 FRACTION = 0.06 FRACTION = 0.01 potential buyers 100 75 50 25 0 30 60 Time (Month) buy rate 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 30 60 Time (Month) Buyers vs. buy rate 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 100 Buyers (person) buy rate 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 –– 新假设 对于一种新商品人们并不了解，一开始就购买的人不会太多 大部分人只是在听到已经购买的人的介绍或者看到别人在抢购后才逐渐对该商品有所了解，购买者也才会多起来 已经购买该商品的户数越多，越会促成更多的销售 更符合实际的新假定是： 销售量正比于还没有购买该商品的户数和已经购买该商品的户数的乘积 一阶反馈系统的复杂性 –– 新假设 ( 1) FRACTION = 0.002 Units: dmnl/(Month*person) (2) TOTAL BUYERS = 100 Units: person (3) buy rate = FRACTION*Buyers*possible buyers Units: person/Month (4) Buyers = INTEG(buy rate,1) Units: person (5) possible buyers = TOTAL BUYERS-Buyers Units: person FINAL TIME: 60 TIME STEP: