[经管营销]Ch12 Uncertainty.ppt

Chapter Twelve Uncertainty Main Issue A state-contingent consumption plan Preferences Under Uncertainty and Expected utility Risk-aversion, risk-loving, and risk-neutrality Competitive Insurance Uncertainty is Pervasive What is uncertain in economic systems? tomorrow’s prices future wealth future availability of commodities present and future actions of other people. Uncertainty is Pervasive What are rational responses to uncertainty? buying insurance (health, life, auto) a portfolio of contingent consumption goods. States of Nature Possible states of Nature: “car accident” (a) “no car accid