水晶球软件使用crystalball.pptx

Project ManagementSession 9Crystal BallOPIM 5270Session 9 GoalsUnderstand why risk must be analyzedKnow pros / cons for three ways to analyze riskIdentify random variables in modelsKnow the four steps of a simulation processGenerate random numbers with Crystal BallUse the four steps of a simulation processExplain how Crystal Ball supports Proj. Mgmt.Dealing with RandomnessMost real-world business situations today are probabilistic, but the decision models used to deal with them are deterministic.How to deal with randomness?Ignore itSimplify problem to make it analytically tractable, get soluti