§8市场预测概述概要.ppt

* 修正误差的要求和标准 要选择、配备一定数量的懂业务、工作态度好、具有预测经验的人员，构成合理的预测队伍 此外，还应： 核实已有的市场信息，并及时掌握近期有关的市场信息资料，建立市场信息档案，从各种所需资料对比中，分析其特性和成因； 根据资料的具体特征选择预测方法，在符合预测要求的前提下，力求省时、省力、方便、简单； 在真实准确的市场信息与合理预测的方法基础上，进行实事求是的预见和推测，保证预测值的真实可靠性 * 市场预测精确度的测定[1] 绝对误差和相对误差。绝对误差是预测误差的绝对值，用et表示 相对误差又称误差率，是预测误差与实际观察值之比，用St表示 公式： 式中：et代表t期的预测误差，yt代表t期的实际观察值，代表t期的预测值。et可为正值或负值，表示预测偏低或偏高 et=yt － yt St= * 市场预测精确度的测定[2] 绝对误差的大小，对不同的预测项目不可比 相对误差为分析对此不同预测项目的误差大小提供了可比量度 相对误差的正负号，可以表示误差的倾向，为改进预测模型提供了依据 绝对误差和相对误差，都只有在取得了预测期的实际观察值之后，才能计算，只能用于事后检验。 Thanks！ 下次课——第9章判断分析市场预测法 * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * 结构型问卷又称标准化问卷或控制式问卷。 * 有超级链接 * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * 有超级链接 * * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their business and the ever increasing speed of change. * * * * * * * * * * 这种形式的优点是可以清楚地表明哪些是后续性问题，哪些是非后续性问题，调查对象对自己应该回答的问题一目了然。缺点是当后续性问题较多时，设计比较困难。 * * * * In talking to many of our clients over the last two years, they have consistently told us about the pressures on their busi