亚太地区港口及集装箱运输.pptVIP

ESCAP/IAPH Seminar on Shipping and Port Development Strategies PROSPECTS FOR CONTAINER SHIPPING AND PORTS IN THE ESCAP REGION Water Transport MPPM – to provide a regional planning context Shipping policy - to promote competitive services Cruise shipping – to explore new opportunities Port commercialization/privatization – to enhance efficiency IWT integration – to improve sustainability Multimodal transport and logistics – to promote integration Maritime Policy Planning Model Developed by the ESCAP secretariat A set of computer modules covering trade, shipping and ports to provide projection of: Trade flows and future shipping requirements Port cargo throughputs and port infrastructure requirements MPPM Studies Prospects for container shipping and port development ASEAN (1992) South Asia (1993) East Asia (1994) Intra-regional Container Shipping Study (1997) Regional shipping and port development strategies under a changing maritime environment (2001) Three Modules of MPPM Trade Module MPPM Model Structure Trade Projection Analysis of historical data Time-series of import/export full container totals for countries Forecast export/import totals Simple regression function estimation Explanatory variables: GDP Produce port-to-port cargo flows Economic Growth Assumption World Container Volumes (Full, O-D) Asian Container Trade 400+ actual service routes to/from/within Asia (1999) Service details (sequence of calling ports, service frequency) Vessel description (how many ships of how big sizes) What will the future shipping network look like? How big will ships be? Scenarios on shipping networks Base network 2011 Similar to existing shipping network Bigger ships up to 12000 TEU but limited role: 8000 TEU or less in major E-W routes Big ships network 2011 12000 TEU ships playing dominant role calling very limited number of super hub ports in E-W routes Required Number of Ships Asia-Europe (2011) Transpacific (2011) Trans-shipment (ESCAP) Container Port Throughput Top 5