Cash Flow Estimation and Risk Analysis参考.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Project Operating Cash Flows, If Expected Inflation = 5% 12-* (Thousands of dollars) 1 2 3 4 Revenues 21 0 220 232 243 Op. costs (60%) - 126 - 132 - 139 - 146 – Depreciation - 79 - 108 - 36 - 17 EBIT 5 - 20 57 80 – Taxes (40%) 2 - 8 23 32 EBIT(1 – T) 3 - 12 34 48 + Depreciation 79 108 36 17 EBIT(1 – T) + DEP 82 96 70 65 Considering Inflation:Project CFs, NPV, and IRR Enter CFs into calculator CFLO register, and enter I/YR = 10%. NPV = $15.0. IRR = 12.6%. 12-* MIRR = 11.6%. Payback = 3.1 years. 0 -260 82.1 96.1 70.0 65.1 35.0 100.1 (Thousands of dollars) 70.0 96.1 82.1 -260 FCFs 1 2 3 4 Perform a Scenario Analysis of the Project, Based on Changes in the Sales Forecast Suppose we are confident of all the variable estimates, except unit sales. The actual unit sales are expected to follow the following probability distribution: 12-* Scenario Analysis All other factors shall remain constant and the NPV under each scenario can be determined. 12-* Determining Expected NPV, ?NPV, and CVNPV from the Scenario Analysis 12-* If firm’s average projects’ CVNPV range is 1.25-1.75, would this project have high, average, or low risk? With a CVNPV of 2.0, this project would be classified as a high-risk project. Perhaps, some sort of risk correction is required for proper analysis. 12-* Is this project likely to be correlated with the firm’s business? How would it contribute to the firm’s overall risk? We would expect a positive correlation with the firm’s aggregate cash flows. As long as correlation is not perfectly positive (i.e., ρ ? 1), we would expect it to contribute to the lowering of the firm’s overall risk. 12-* If the project had a high correlation with the economy, how would corporate and market risk be affected? The project’s corpora