dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty the future of copper：（动态场景下发现深不确定性的未来铜）.pdfVIP

Technological Forecasting Social Change 80 (2013) 789–800 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting Social Change Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper Jan H. Kwakkel a,⁎, Willem L. Auping b, Erik Pruyt a a Faculty of Technology, Policy Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands b The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, The Hague, The Netherlands a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Scenarios are commonly used to communicate and characterize uncertainty in many policy Received 3 December 2011 fields. One of the main challenges of scenario approaches is that analysts have to try and Received in revised form 11 September 2012 capture the full breadth of uncertainty about the future in a small set of scenarios. In the Accepted 22 September 2012 presence of deep uncertainty, this is even more challenging. Scenario discovery is a Available online 30 October 2012 model-based technique inspired by the scenario logic school that addresses this challenge. In scenario discovery, an ensemble of model runs is created that encompasses the various Keywords: uncertainties perceived by the actors involved in particular decision making situations. The Scenario discovery ensemble is subsequently screened to identify runs of interest, and their conditions for Exp