2015年1季度全球黄金年鉴及展望.pdfVIP

GOLD SURVEY 2015 Q1 REVIEW OUTLOOK 1. GLOBAL REVIEW AND OUTLOOK Jeweller y Consumption fell 6.7% year-on-year to 527 tonnes in Q1 2015, its lowest first quarter level since 2012, as price sensitive markets held off on purchases. Retail Investment, purchases of physical bars and coins, is more sensitive to price expectations than jewellery and has fallen 17% year-on-year to its weakest first quarter level since 2009. The U.S. dollar gold price lacks direction as the market tries to anticipate the impact of higher US rates. Traders and retailers say a price level of $1,100-1,150/oz is needed to rekindle Asian demand, although this level is heavily impacted by currency movements. Globally the gold market has been suffering over the first quarter of 2015 as a lack of firm price direction has seen many remain very cautious, especially in terms of the retail investment and investment grade jewellery side of the market. There have been some bright spots however and field research suggests that while many are choosing to stand on the sidelines for now there remains solid interest in the yellow metal as an asset class. In terms of individual countries’ performance, currency has been king in Q1, while the LBMA Gold Price in U.S. dollars (which replaced the gold fix in March) averaged 5.8% lower year-on-year, and 1.3% lower quarter-on-quarter, these movements were not reflected in all countries. For example the euro and yen have seen increases year-on-year of 14.8% and 9.2% respectively while the Turkish lira price averaged 4.8% higher. Even in countries pegged to the U.S. dollar there have been currency impacts, with Russian tourist numbers and spending down sharply in the UAE as the rouble gold price increased 68.9% year-on-year owing to a weaker currency on the back of substantially lower energy prices and Western sanctions. WORLD GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND (tonnes) Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013