国际LNG市场发展趋势.pdf

Trends in International LNG Anthony Patten, Partner, Allens Presentation to AMPLA State Conference Fremantle, Western Australia 18 May 2012 Allens is an independent partnership operating in alliance with Linklaters LLP. Overview • 3/11 and Fukushima • State of the key LNG markets • Australia’s escalating role in LNG production • The competition – Qatar • The competition – North America • Conclusions 2 3/11 and Fukushima • Shift away from nuclear • Japan’s LNG demand expected to rise from 70 mtpa in 2010 to 82 mtpa in 2012 • LNG imports hit a monthly all time record in January 2012 (8.2 mtpa) • China, Korea and Taiwan remain Japan’s major competitors for LNG supply • Korea, as an example, is experiencing significant growth in LNG demand – 2011 imports already at anticipated 2015 levels • Tightening of the LNG shipping market 3 State of the key LNG markets - US • Shale gas • Henry hub pricing at historic lows • Nymex Henry Hub futures at US$2.51 / MMBtu on 15 May close • Significant unutilised regasification capacity • Arbitrage opportunities 4 State of the key LNG markets - Europe • UK NBP pricing (spot price at 14 May = US$9.22 / MMBtu) • European gas pricing – delinkage of gas and oil • Demand expected to grow • Need for new infrastructure (gas storage, pipelines) • Eurozone issues 5 State of the key LNG markets – Asia • Growing demand in Asia • Typical pricing at approximately US$15 / MMB